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Cultivating high-value crops for national consumption and agro-export in South Africa (SA) delivers substantive socio-economic benefits whilst also contributing to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. However, irrigated agriculture in SA requires substantial volumes of water (c3000m3/ha/yr) which is challenging given the severe pressure on water resources. The recent drought in 2018 coupled with rising competition for water between sectors, and the increased drought risks associated with a changing climate threaten the long-term economic viability of high-value export orientated production. For many businesses, water is the major constraint limiting sustainable expansion to meet growing market demands.

Whilst agri-businesses typically focus on short-term operational decisions regarding water management, they lack the necessary tools to make informed medium-term decisions on how drought risks and water availability might impact on production and business viability.

Working with the Institute of Natural Resources (INR) our research partner in SA and with commercial farm businesses in the Groot Letaba catchment (GLC) we are developing, testing and applying a decision support tool to improve drought risk management for commercial irrigated agriculture in the GLC. This will provide better information to understand water risks (reliability of dam storages) whilst ensuring downstream water allocations (urban demands and environmental flows to the Kruger NP) are respected.

Progress update

A prototype tool has been developed, calibrated and validated to assess baseline water demands and water resources reliability in the GLC catchment. It is now being further developed to evaluate a range of future climate and land management scenario.